Stinger outlook: Cairns to Port Douglas

Reading the wind forecast.

The beaches the outlook covers, sized by the days with recorded stings from 1998 to 2016. The wind is read at the arrow offshore, near Green Island. Choose a day above to colour the map for it.

Higher than usual. The south-east trade wind is forecast to drop away the day before: calm, or blowing from the north-west. Recorded stings on these beaches have mostly come on days like this.

Usual for the season. Irukandji can be in the water on any day of the stinger season. This never means a beach is safe.

Every day of the stinger season

The season runs from November to May. Whatever the outlook says:

Swim at a patrolled beach, between the red and yellow flags. The lifeguards' flags, signs and closures always come first.
Swim inside the stinger nets where there are nets. They keep out box jellyfish, but Irukandji are small enough to get through.
Wear a full-body lycra stinger suit.
If someone is stung, call Triple Zero (000), pour vinegar on the sting for at least 30 seconds, and get a lifeguard. Irukandji symptoms can take 20 to 40 minutes to start.

From the Queensland Government and Surf Life Saving Queensland.

How it works

A CSIRO study in 2014 found that Irukandji stings on this coast tend to follow a drop in the south-east trade wind. This page applies that study's rule to the latest forecast: a day is higher than usual when the average wind along the coast the day before is calm or from the north-west.

The rule was tested on the public records of stings on these beaches before this page was built:

35 of 56sting days, November to March 1998-99 to 2016-17, fell on days the rule marked. It marked about one day in five.

11 of 15sting days caught in the five seasons after the 2014 study's own data ended.

8 in 10of these wind drops are caught by the forecast three days ahead, and about 6 in 10 a week ahead.

Left: the average wind along the shore falls from about 3 metres a second from the south-east a week before a sting to near zero the day before. Right: the rule marked 22% of days, which held 62% of sting days in all seasons and 73% in the seasons after the 2014 study. — The test in one chart. Open it full size to read it on a phone.

What it cannot do

Most of the sting records come from news reports, so they are few and miss many stings. Calm days also bring more people into the water, and the records cannot tell that apart from more jellyfish. The outlook covers the mainland beaches from Cairns to Port Douglas, not the islands or the reef. It was tested on November to March, and the forecast further out is more likely to change.

This is an experimental outlook from public data, made by BioGeo. It is not a warning service, it can be wrong, and it never means a beach is safe.

Sources

The rule: Gershwin, L., Condie, S.A., Mansbridge, J.V. and Richardson, A.J. (2014). Dangerous jellyfish blooms are predictable. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 11: 20131168. Also CSIRO's 2018 report for the National Environmental Science Program.
Sting records: Venomous Jellyfish Database, sting events and specimen samples (November 2018), CSIRO, on eAtlas, CC BY 3.0 AU. Based on or contains data provided by Dr Lisa-ann Gershwin (Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Services) and CSIRO. In consideration of the state permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.
Wind forecast: MET Norway Locationforecast, from the ECMWF model, CC BY 4.0, averaged by BioGeo into daily winds along the coast at 16.75 S, 146.00 E.
Past winds and forecast checks: ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service) and ECMWF forecasts for 2024 to 2026, through Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0.
Map: aerial photos from the Queensland Government's latest state imagery, CC BY-SA. Includes material © State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Manufacturing and Regional and Rural Development); © Planet Labs Netherlands B.V. reproduced under licence from Planet and Geoplex, all rights reserved, 2026. Map drawn with MapLibre.